By Dai Xunxun

代勛勛

With the announcement of the US presidential election results as a watershed, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has shown two interconnected yet contradictory developments. On the one hand, the Biden administration has increased its support for Ukraine, aiming to work with European allies to firmly back Ukraine during its remaining term, which has led to a significant escalation in the intensity of the conflict in the short term. On the other hand, with the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House, there has been a shift in the positions of the parties involved in the conflict, raising the possibility of Russia and Ukraine returning to the negotiating table.

近期，大致以美國大選結(jié)果公布為分水嶺，俄烏沖突呈現(xiàn)出兩種相互關(guān)聯(lián)卻又矛盾的走勢。一方面，拜登政府加大援烏力度，企圖在剩余任期內(nèi)協(xié)同歐洲盟友堅(jiān)決挺烏，短期內(nèi)導(dǎo)致戰(zhàn)事烈度升級明顯；另一方面，特朗普即將回歸白宮，引起沖突各方態(tài)度調(diào)整，俄烏重回談判桌的可能性上升。

Since the beginning of this year, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has continued along the trajectory of a war of attrition. The Biden administration intends to accelerate support for Ukraine in the remainder of its term, with the US, the UK, and France all authorizing Ukraine to use long-range weapons to strike deep within Russian territory. Ukraine has used long-range weapons such as the US-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and the UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles to attack targets within Russian territory several times. This is another escalation of military action against Russia, following Ukraine's attack on Russia's Kursk Oblast region. Although the Biden administration's actions to escalate the conflict will not fundamentally alter the overall situation on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, they can perpetuate the conflict by assisting Ukraine, thus helping Ukraine get more bargaining chips in future negotiations.

今年以來，俄烏沖突繼續(xù)沿著消耗戰(zhàn)軌道進(jìn)行。拜登政府有意在剩余任期內(nèi)聯(lián)合盟友加速援烏，美、英、法均授權(quán)烏使用遠(yuǎn)程武器打擊俄羅斯本土縱深。烏數(shù)次使用美援陸軍戰(zhàn)術(shù)導(dǎo)彈、英援“風(fēng)暴陰影”巡航導(dǎo)彈等遠(yuǎn)程武器，襲擊俄境內(nèi)目標(biāo)。這是繼烏進(jìn)攻俄庫爾斯克州后，對俄軍事行動的再次升級。盡管拜登政府的拱火行為不會從根本上改變俄烏戰(zhàn)場的總體態(tài)勢，卻能通過向?yàn)蹩颂m提供援助延宕俄烏戰(zhàn)事，助烏在后續(xù)可能的談判中增加籌碼。

The increasingly tense battlefield situation and security pressure have prompted Russia to seek stronger measures to deter the US and other Western countries. On November 19, Russia updated the Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence, further lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. According to the document, any aggression against Russia and/or its allies by a non-nuclear state, with the participation or support of a nuclear state, will be considered a joint attack on Russia initiated by both the non-nuclear and nuclear states. On November 21, Russia used the Oreshnik intermediate-range hypersonic missile without a nuclear warhead to carry out a precision strike on an industrial area in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine, as a strategic deterrence action, warning Ukraine and NATO to remain cautious in their actions and positions towards Russia.

日益趨緊的戰(zhàn)場局勢和安全壓力，促使俄尋求更強(qiáng)勢手段懾止美西方。11月19日，俄更新《俄羅斯聯(lián)邦核威懾國家基本政策》，核武器使用門檻進(jìn)一步降低。根據(jù)該文件，任何無核國家在有核國家參與或支持下對俄和（或）其盟國的侵略，都將被視為無核國家和有核國家對俄發(fā)起的聯(lián)合攻擊。11月21日，俄使用未搭載核彈頭的“榛樹”中程高超音速導(dǎo)彈，對烏克蘭第聶伯羅彼得羅夫斯克州一處工業(yè)區(qū)實(shí)施精確打擊，以戰(zhàn)略級威懾行動警告烏克蘭及北約在對俄行動和立場上保持謹(jǐn)慎。

After Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election, members of his team repeatedly expressed their intention to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Donald Trump also nominated a member who supports negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to serve as the special envoy for resolving the Ukraine crisis. From the policies adopted during Donald Trump's previous term, it is evident that he tends to pull the US out of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and shift the responsibility for security and the pressure of aiding Ukraine onto European allies. The shift in US policy has, to some extent, created an opportunity for Russia-Ukraine negotiations.

特朗普勝選后，其團(tuán)隊(duì)成員多次作出結(jié)束俄烏沖突的表態(tài)，特朗普還提名支持俄烏談判的成員擔(dān)任俄烏沖突問題特使。從特朗普上一總統(tǒng)任期采取的政策可以看出，其更傾向于讓美國從俄烏沖突中抽身，將安全責(zé)任和援烏壓力轉(zhuǎn)嫁給歐洲盟友。美方的政策轉(zhuǎn)向在某種程度上為俄烏談判創(chuàng)造了契機(jī)。

Under the influence of the US, the attitudes of both Russia and Ukraine have changed. Russia has shown some flexibility and room for the negotiations. Meanwhile, the attitude of Ukraine towards negotiations has softened slightly. Although European countries have not abandoned aid to Ukraine, they no longer refuse to engage with Russia. Germany was the first to send out contact signals. On November 15, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone to discuss the possibility of ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict through negotiations. Some "New Europe" countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, have also expressed views on ending the conflict on various occasions. Currently, although there is still no full alignment of positions, positive signs of a shift in the situation have emerged.

在美方因素影響下，俄烏雙方態(tài)度有所轉(zhuǎn)變。俄羅斯給予談判一定的靈活度和轉(zhuǎn)圜空間。與此同時(shí)，烏克蘭對談判的態(tài)度也略有軟化。歐洲各國雖然并未放棄對烏援助，但也不再拒絕與俄接觸。德國率先釋放接觸信號。11月15日，德國總理朔爾茨與俄總統(tǒng)普京通話，探討以談判結(jié)束俄烏沖突的可能性。匈牙利、斯洛伐克等部分“新歐洲”國家，也在不同場合表達(dá)了結(jié)束沖突的觀點(diǎn)。目前看，盡管各方立場尚未找到充分的契合點(diǎn)，但已出現(xiàn)局勢轉(zhuǎn)圜的積極信號。

The prolongation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is due to, on the one hand, the provoking and interfering external factors, and on the other hand, the deep-rooted contradictions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the lack of a sustainable security framework between Russia and Europe. As the contradictions that led to the conflict are not formed in a day, it is equally difficult to achieve a swift resolution to the war.

俄烏沖突延宕至今，一方面有外部因素的挑動干擾，另一方面也是由于俄烏之間根深蒂固的矛盾，以及俄歐間從未形成可持續(xù)的安全保障框架。正如導(dǎo)致沖突爆發(fā)的矛盾“非一日之寒”，戰(zhàn)事的結(jié)束也很難迅速達(dá)成。

Although Donald Trump has stated that he "could solve the issue in one day", it is important to recognize that the ultimate goal of the US is not to fully resolve the Ukraine issue, but rather to profit from the situation in a different way. Upholding the "America First" policy, Donald Trump aims to withdraw the US from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and consolidate US hegemony in a way that involves lower costs and higher returns. In addition, the US arms industry and energy sector have profited significantly from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It is unlikely that the US will give up this "no-lose" business and will not easily relinquish Ukraine, a strategically important region with political, military, and economic significance.

盡管特朗普曾表示“要在一天內(nèi)解決俄烏沖突”，但應(yīng)清醒看到，美國的最終目的并非勸和促談、徹底解決烏克蘭問題，而是換一種方式從中漁利。特朗普秉持“美國優(yōu)先”政策，無非是要從俄烏戰(zhàn)事中抽身，以投入更小、收益更高的方式鞏固美霸權(quán)地位。此外，美軍火工業(yè)、能源產(chǎn)業(yè)從俄烏沖突中獲利頗豐，美國很難放棄這單“只賺不賠”的生意，不會輕易放手烏克蘭這一兼具政治、軍事、經(jīng)濟(jì)意義的戰(zhàn)略要地。

It can be seen that no matter how the US government changes, its stance on containing Russia remains unchanged. It is difficult to establish a security framework between Russia and Europe in the short term, which means the deep-rooted contradictions between Russia and Ukraine cannot be resolved immediately, making the path to peace long and steep.

可以看出，無論美國政府如何更迭，其遏俄立場始終不變。而俄羅斯和歐洲之間的安全保障框架難以在短期內(nèi)構(gòu)建起來，這也使俄烏沖突雙方的矛盾一時(shí)無法消除，實(shí)現(xiàn)和平道阻且長。

(The author is from the PLA Academy of Military Sciences)　

（作者單位：軍事科學(xué)院）