By Ding Xiaoxing
丁曉星
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for over 1,000 days, but the fierce battles remain deadlocked. In August, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise attack on Kursk. Since September, Russian advances in eastern Ukraine have noticeably accelerated. Meanwhile, significant changes are unfolding off the battlefield. For example, Donald Trump, who has long vowed to end the conflict, won the US presidential election.
俄烏沖突已超過1000天，但雙方在戰(zhàn)場上的爭斗仍膠著慘烈。8月，烏軍突襲庫爾斯克；9月以來，俄在烏東推進速度明顯加快。同時，戰(zhàn)場外的變化巨大，比如特朗普贏得美國大選，他早就放話要結(jié)束俄烏沖突。
Based on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict as well as the global landscape, the deadlock is hard to break but peace talks are inevitable. There are four reasons why such talks are inevitable.
觀察當(dāng)前俄烏雙方及世界局勢，可以認(rèn)為僵局難破，但和談是必然。
First, the deadlocked battle brought heavy losses to both sides. Since neither side can end the war quickly and completely, a prolonged war will only cause more losses. As the room for resolving the problem through military means alone has been exhausted, moving towards negotiation is inevitable.
其一，千日來，俄烏戰(zhàn)場拉鋸膠著，雙方損失慘重，都無法迅速、徹底結(jié)束戰(zhàn)局，持續(xù)下去也只會造成更多損失，單憑軍事手段解決問題的空間已耗盡，走向談判是必然。
Second, the voices advocating peace talks in Russia and Ukraine are growing louder. Both sides have suffered huge lost and irreversible casualties and people in both countries are tired of the war. Relevant polls show that more than 50% of the people in both countries support ending the war or starting peace talks as soon as possible.
其二，俄烏國內(nèi)主張和談的聲音都在增大，雙方消耗巨大，人員損失更不可逆，兩國民眾對戰(zhàn)爭都已感到疲憊，相關(guān)民調(diào)顯示，兩國支持盡快結(jié)束戰(zhàn)爭或開始和談的民眾占比皆超過50%。
Third, given the mismatched national and military power, Ukraine relies heavily on external support. It is reported that since February 2022, Ukraine has received over USD 235 billion in military and financial aid from more than 40 countries and EU institutions, excluding weapons, intelligence, and other support.
其三，在俄烏國力、軍力差距較大的背景下，烏克蘭主要依仗外部援助，據(jù)媒體報道，2022年2月以來，烏克蘭已經(jīng)從40多個國家和歐盟機構(gòu)處獲得了超過2350億美元的軍事與財政援助，另外還有各式武器、情報信息支持等。
Fourth, the external environment has undergone tremendous changes. Many elections and party alternations are underway in Western countries, which will have a major impact on the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Global South countries advocate that Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks as soon as possible. The six-point consensus on a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis jointly issued by China and Brazil has been supported by more than 100 countries. The group of Friends for Peace on the Ukraine crisis jointly initiated by Global South countries is also helping cool down the situation.
其四，外部環(huán)境已發(fā)生巨大變化，多場選舉和政黨輪替在西方國家舉行，這會對俄烏沖突走向產(chǎn)生重大影響；“全球南方”國家主張俄烏盡快和談，中國和巴西聯(lián)合發(fā)表的政治解決烏克蘭危機“六點共識”已得到一百多個國家的支持，“全球南方”國家共同發(fā)起成立的烏克蘭危機“和平之友”小組也在為局勢降溫匯聚合力。
At the same time, there are still many difficulties to be solved before Russia and Ukraine can hold peace talks. Firstly, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has suddenly escalated recently. The Biden administration allowed Ukraine's use of US Army Tactical Missile System（ATMS）to strike targets inside Russia, and the UK and France also seemed to have lifted relevant restrictions. On November 21, Russian troops used a new hypersonic missile Oreshnik to strike a facility within Ukraine's defense industrial complex, which was regarded as a response and severe warning to the West.
同時也應(yīng)看到，俄烏能否和談仍存在不少難題。其一，近日，俄烏沖突驟然升級，拜登政府同意烏克蘭使用美國的美制陸軍戰(zhàn)術(shù)導(dǎo)彈系統(tǒng)（ATACMS）對俄本土縱深目標(biāo)進行打擊，英法也似乎解除了相關(guān)限制。21日，俄軍使用一枚新型高超音速導(dǎo)彈“榛樹”打擊烏軍工企業(yè)，這也被視為是對西方的回應(yīng)和嚴(yán)厲警告。
Secondly, while Trump views aid to Ukraine as a "bottomless pit" and is reluctant to focus on the conflict, there are still many anti-Russia hardliners in the US and within the Republican Party. They believe that continuing the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be beneficial to the US and can achieve the strategic goal of "weakening Russia and controlling Europe" .
其二，雖然特朗普抱持著“對烏援助是無底洞”態(tài)度且并不想把精力放在俄烏沖突上，但美國國內(nèi)、共和黨內(nèi)仍有不少對俄強硬派，他們認(rèn)為繼續(xù)俄烏沖突可能對美有利，可以達到“弱俄控歐”的戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)。
Thirdly, European leaders fear that Trump's return to power might result in diminished support for Ukraine, thus threatening Europe's security. In a recent meeting, UK and French leaders reaffirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also expressed his commitment to ensuring continued defense assistance to Ukraine.
其三，歐洲擔(dān)心特朗普上臺后可能會放棄支持烏克蘭，從而威脅歐洲的安全，因此英法領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人本月會晤時重申“將堅定不移地支持烏克蘭”，北約秘書長呂特也表示要確保繼續(xù)向烏克蘭提供防務(wù)援助。
As Trump's inauguration date approaches, the possibility of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine has increased. However, the differences between Russia and Ukraine are huge, and the road to peace talks is destined to be difficult. At present, the Trump team has not given a clear plan but has questioned the recent decision of the Biden administration and expressed that Europe should play a "key role" in the process of restoring peace. The most discussed in the West is the "land for NATO membership" plan, that is, Ukraine accepts the territorial reality while being granted NATO membership to prevent future conflicts. However, this plan is unlikely to gain Russia's approval. Russia and Ukraine have previously signed two Minsk agreements on the Ukraine crisis, which all failed to guarantee peace. Neither Russia nor Ukraine needs a third Minsk agreement, which makes peace talks very difficult.
隨著特朗普就任日期不斷臨近，俄烏和談的可能性有所增加，但俄烏雙方分歧巨大，和談之路注定不會簡單。目前，特朗普團隊還沒有給出一個明確方案，只是對拜登政府近日的決定提出質(zhì)疑，還表達了歐洲應(yīng)當(dāng)在恢復(fù)和平的進程中發(fā)揮“關(guān)鍵作用”等態(tài)度。西方目前討論比較多的是“以土地?fù)Q入約”的方案，即烏克蘭接受領(lǐng)土現(xiàn)實，同時為避免將來再起沖突，給予烏克蘭北約成員國地位。但這一方案肯定不會獲得俄羅斯的同意。之前俄烏也就烏克蘭危機簽署過兩份“明斯克協(xié)議”，但并沒有保障和平，所以俄烏都不需要第三份“明斯克協(xié)議”，因此和談的難度很大。
More importantly, the root cause of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the security issue in Europe. Even if Russia and Ukraine can temporarily cease fire, it cannot fundamentally solve the core issue of the conflict. Although Russia has proposed the initiative to build a new Eurasian security framework, the West still advocates the establishment of a security system without Russia. Therefore, the confrontation between Russia and the West will continue for a long time.
更重要的是，俄烏沖突的根源是歐洲的安全問題，俄烏即使能夠暫時?；?，也無法從根本上解決沖突的核心問題。俄羅斯雖然提出了構(gòu)建“歐亞安全新框架”的倡議，但西方依然主張建立一個沒有俄羅斯、排斥俄羅斯的安全體系，因此俄與西方的對峙仍將長期持續(xù)。
(The author is the director of the Institute of Eurasian Studies at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.)
（作者是中國現(xiàn)代國際關(guān)系研究院歐亞所所長）
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
